Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 26: Regulations Respecting the Reduction in the Release of Methane (Waste Sector)

June 29, 2024

Statutory authority
Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999

Sponsoring departments
Department of the Environment
Department of Health

REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS STATEMENT

(This statement is not part of the Regulations.)

Executive Summary

Issues: Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are a major contributor to climate change. According to Canada’s Methane Strategy, methane is a powerful GHG responsible for roughly 30% of global warming. In 2021, emissions from Canadian landfills accounted for 19% of national methane emissions and 2.5% of national GHG emissions. Despite voluntary and regulatory actions implemented in Canada over the past decades, additional methane emission reductions from landfills are possible. To secure these reductions by 2030 (a key milestone year under the Paris Agreement and the Global Methane Pledge) a consistent and more stringent regulatory approach is needed to reduce landfill methane emissions across the country.

Description: The proposed Regulations Respecting the Reduction in the Release of Methane (Waste Sector) [hereinafter referred to as the proposed Regulations] would be made under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (CEPA) and would reduce methane emissions from landfills receiving municipal solid waste through a performance-based approach that sets surface methane concentration limits and requires regular monitoring to confirm these limits are being met, to identify methane leaks and to ensure methane recovery is optimized. The proposed Regulations would apply to certain privately and municipally owned landfills that have received municipal solid waste.

Rationale: In March 2022, the Government published Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (PDF) (ERP), providing a roadmap to reach its climate commitments, including reducing national GHG emissions by 40% to 45% below 2005 levels by 2030 under the Paris Agreement, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Also in 2022, Canada’s Methane Strategy outlined the Government’s plan to reduce methane by 35% below 2020 levels by 2030 in support of Canada’s contribution to the Global Methane Pledge. The plan and strategy both outlined the intention to establish new regulations under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 that would reduce methane emissions from municipal solid waste landfills by 50% below 2019 levels by 2030. There is an opportunity for Canadian landfills to reduce methane emissions through the implementation of a consistent and more stringent regulatory approach across the country.

Cost-benefit statement: From 2025 to 2040, the proposed Regulations are estimated to have total present value costs of $581 million, while the cumulative GHG emission reductions are estimated to be 107 megatonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), valued at $11.2 billion in terms of the estimated social benefit of avoided global damages from climate change. The monetized net benefits of the proposed Regulations are thus estimated to be $10.6 billion and are estimated to be achieved at an average cost of $5 per tonne of CO2e over the time frame of the analysis.

Issues

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are a major contributor to climate change. Methane is a powerful GHG responsible for roughly 30% of global warming since pre-industrial times. In 2021, emissions from Canadian landfills accounted for 19% of national methane emissions and 2.5% of national GHG emissions. Despite voluntary and regulatory actions implemented in Canada over the past decades, additional methane emission reductions from landfills are possible. Canada has committed to reducing GHG and methane emissions by 2030 (a key milestone year under the Paris Agreement and the Global Methane Pledge) and in order to secure these reductions in this time frame, a consistent and more stringent regulatory approach is needed to reduce landfill methane emissions across the country.

Background

Methane is listed as a toxic substance (item No. 66) under Part 2 of Schedule 1 to the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (CEPA). It is a potent GHG with at least 25 times more global warming potential than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period.footnote 1 Methane has a relatively short lifespan in the atmosphere compared to other longer-lived GHGs such as carbon dioxide. Atmospheric levels of methane thus respond relatively quickly to changes in emissions since they are removed quickly from the atmosphere. As a result of the potency and short lifespan of methane, reducing methane emissions has the potential to bring significant near-term climate benefits.

Landfill gas, which is composed of methane (between 40 and 60%), carbon dioxide and other non-methane organic compounds, is generated in landfills following the disposal of biodegradable waste. The generation process occurs over many years, which means that the methane generated and emitted at landfills today is the result of decades of disposal of biodegradable waste. Methane generated from this anaerobic degradation process is not biogenicfootnote 2 as it is not considered to be part of the natural carbon cycle; therefore, it contributes to national GHG emissions estimates. Methane emissions from landfills include fugitive emissions through the landfill cover, from the active disposal area and from component leaks in landfill gas control systems. The carbon dioxide generated and emitted as landfill gas is considered biogenic and is carbon neutral. Therefore, it is not included in national GHG emission estimates.

Reducing landfill methane emissions can most effectively be achieved by preventing the generation of methane through diverting biodegradable waste to beneficial uses like composting, anaerobic digestion, and recycling. Where elimination of methane generation through diversion of biodegradable waste is not possible and to address the legacy methane emissions related to historical waste disposal, equipment can be installed at landfills to recover landfill gas and reduce methane emissions through combustion. This combustion can take place on-site, for example, in a flare, an electricity-generating engine or some other gas-fired equipment. The combustion can also take place off-site, for example, through direct use in a gas-fired boiler at an industrial facility or, after processing to remove impurities, as renewable natural gas (where it is ultimately combusted in natural gas-fired appliances or vehicles). Combustion of landfill gas converts methane to carbon dioxide, thus lowering the global warming potential of the emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions produced from the combustion of biogenic methane (such as the methane portion of landfill gas) are also considered biogenic and not included in national GHG emission estimates.

The Government of Canada (the Government) is committed to acting on climate change. As such, it has committed to a 2030 GHG emission reduction target of 40% to 45% below 2005 levels and has a goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. The Government’s Strengthened Climate Plan: A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy, published in December 2020, reiterated the commitment to reducing waste sector methane emissions by developing new federal regulations to increase the number of landfills that collect and treat their methane and ensure that landfills already operating these systems make improvements to collect all they can. In October 2021, Canada announced support for the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to reduce global methane emissions by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. In March 2022, the Government published the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), describing actions that are already driving significant emission reductions as well as proposed measures that will deliver economy-wide emission reductions needed to meet Canada’s international commitments on climate action. The plan outlined the intention to establish new regulations under CEPA which would reduce methane emissions from municipal solid waste landfills by 50% below 2019 levels by 2030. In September 2022, the Government of Canada’s Faster and Further: Canada’s Methane Strategy underscored the commitment to taking comprehensive domestic actions to reduce methane emissions by 35% below 2020 levels by 2030, including reductions in the waste sector.

Some provinces have either specific regulations in place to reduce methane emissions from certain landfills (British Columbia) or have incorporated landfill methane control requirements into general waste management regulations (Ontario and Quebec). However, there are currently no federal regulations in place related to the control of methane emissions from landfills. Federal market-based policies, such as the Clean Fuel Regulations and the Canadian Greenhouse Gas Offset Credit System Regulations, encourage the development of new and expanded landfill methane recovery systems by providing opportunities to generate and sell GHG offset credits generated under the federal Landfill Methane Recovery and Destruction Offset Protocol or compliance credits generated under the Clean Fuel Regulations. These credits can be sold to regulatees under the Output Based Pricing System Regulations and the Clean Fuel Regulations or, in the case of GHG offset credits, to any organization interested in purchasing credits for other purposes.

Objective

The objective of the proposed Regulations is to reduce methane emissions from Canadian landfills by 50% below 2019 levels by 2030, contributing to reducing Canadian GHG emissions and to meeting Canada’s international commitments to combat climate change. In particular, as methane is a short-lived climate pollutant with significant near-term climate impacts, these reductions would contribute to slowing the rate of near-term global warming.

Description

The proposed Regulations would be made under CEPA and build on existing approaches to reduce landfill methane emissions. The proposed Regulations would set applicability thresholds and performance standards in line with the most stringent in North America. Regulated landfills would be required to regularly assess the performance of methane control by monitoring:

The proposed Regulations would require assessment of methane generation within the first year of the coming-into-force, but the main monitoring and compliance requirements would come into effect between 2027 and 2033 in order to provide adequate time for the design and installation of the landfill methane control infrastructure needed for compliance.

Applicability

The proposed Regulations would apply to landfills

The proposed Regulations would also amend the Regulations Designating Regulatory Provisions for Purposes of Enforcement (Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999) [the Designation Regulations]. Sections of the proposed Regulations would be added to the Schedule of the Designation Regulations to reflect the specific provisions designated for the purposes of enforcement.

Methane generation assessment

Landfills that meet the applicability criteria described above would be required to calculate annual methane generation assessments using the Department’s Landfill Methane Generation Model and report the results to the Minister. This assessment would calculate the quantity of annual methane generation produced from all waste disposed in the landfill. An initial assessment would be required (for the year 2024) for all landfills that meet the applicability on the date of the coming into force of the proposed Regulations. Open landfills that exceed the annual methane generation threshold of 664 tonnes and closed landfills that exceed 1 000 tonnes methane generation would have further compliance obligations under the proposed Regulations.

Open landfills with a modelled annual methane generation below 664 tonnes would be required to perform an assessment of methane generation once per year until either the annual methane generation exceeds 664 tonnes (at which point further compliance obligations would apply) or the landfill closes. There would be no further requirements under the proposed Regulations for closed landfills with modelled annual methane generation below 1 000 tonnes.

Application of compliance obligations

The timeline for the application of compliance obligations set out in the proposed Regulations would depend on the results of the methane generation assessment and whether or not a landfill has existing landfill gas recovery wells installed as outlined below. The following timelines would apply, based on the results of the initial assessment conducted under the proposed Regulations.

January 1, 2027

Compliance obligations would apply beginning on January 1, 2027, in areas of open and closed landfills where landfill gas recovery wells were in operation before January 1, 2017, and annual methane generation is calculated to be 1 000 tonnes or more.

January 1, 2029

Compliance obligations would apply beginning on January 1, 2029, in all landfilled areas of open and closed landfills where annual methane generation is calculated to be 1 000 tonnes or more.

January 1, 2033

Compliance obligations would apply beginning on January 1, 2033, in all landfilled areas of open landfills where annual methane generation is calculated to be 664 tonnes or more but less than 1 000 tonnes.

Within four years of the year in which the annual methane generation was exceeded

Compliance obligations would begin to apply in all landfilled areas of landfills where the annual methane generation exceeds 664 tonnes on the later of January 1, 2029, or on January 1 of the fourth year after the year in which the annual methane generation exceeds 664 tonnes.

These landfills would be subject to the compliance obligations described in the next section until they would meet the criteria described in the “Non-application” subsection below.

Compliance obligations

Methane emission controls

The proposed Regulations would require that venting of landfill gas be limited to instances where such action is required for health and safety reasons; as required during system shutdowns for maintenance and repair; and in locations where the landfill gas has a methane content of less than 25% (and verified through eight consecutive quarterly measurements).

All landfill gas that is recovered from a landfill would be required to be conveyed to one or more methane destruction devices or energy recovery systems described in the proposed Regulations. Alternative approaches to methane destruction would be allowed under the proposed Regulations provided the approach is capable of achieving a 98% methane destruction efficiency.

In order to monitor the effectiveness of an active landfill gas recovery system and detect issues with recovery wells, the proposed Regulations would require monitoring of vacuum pressure in recovery wells on a monthly basis. The monitoring would not be required during periods when the landfill gas recovery well is under construction or not operating due to normal servicing or repairs, where the landfill cover is a geomembrane or if the well is located in a portion of the landfill with final cover and where the methane concentration has been measured to be below 25% over a two year period. Within 30 days of any measurements of positive pressure, the landfill owner or operator would be required to take action to return the wellhead to negative pressure. The obligation to resolve positive pressure would not apply if there is a fire or elevated temperatures detected within the landfill.

Methane emission control requirements would no longer apply when the landfill is closed and the annual quantity of methane recovered at the landfill is less than 125 tonnes or methane generation is below 150 tonnes per year.

Methane leak detection and repair

The proposed Regulations would require monitoring three times per year to identify methane leaks in accessible landfill gas recovery system equipment components. A methane leak is defined as a leak from an equipment component with a methane concentration of 500 parts per million volume (ppmv) or higher. If a methane leak is detected, the leak would need to be repaired and the location re-monitored to determine the leak has been repaired within 30 days of the detection. If the leak has not been eliminated within 30 days, the proposed Regulations would require a submission of information regarding the leak to the Minister. The repair of the leak would need to be completed within 90 days after it was first detected.

The proposed Regulations include an option to implement an alternative methane leak detection program. Landfills would need to demonstrate that the alternative methane leak detection program is equivalent in outcome to the methane leak detection requirements specified in the proposed Regulations. Both the regulatory and alternative leak detection programs would need to be run simultaneously for a period of one year to demonstrate they can identify the same methane leaks.

Methane leak detection requirements would no longer apply when the landfill is closed and the annual quantity of methane recovered at the landfill is less than 125 tonnes or methane generation is below 150 tonnes per year.

Surface methane concentration limits

The proposed Regulations would require that surface methane concentrations not exceed the following limits in areas of the landfill with final cover or where waste disposal has not taken place during the previous 12 months:

These limits would not apply in areas where landfill gas control equipment is undergoing normal servicing or repairs or where the landfill cover is under construction.

To demonstrate compliance with the surface methane concentration limits, monitoring would be required three times per year. Monitoring to measure surface methane concentration would be required in the areas specified above using one of two types of methane detection methods described in the regulations. Measurements would be recorded on a pattern that traverses the landfill on 7.5 metre intervals. A drone-based method could be used that includes a scan of the monitoring area to identify areas of elevated methane concentration, followed by ground-based verification of surface methane concentration. Requirements for ground-based methods included in the proposed Regulations are consistent with typical surface methane concentration monitoring conducted under the Quebec and US federal and state regulations and incorporate by reference the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) test methods for measuring surface methane concentration limits set out in instruments such as Method 21 Volatile Organic Compound Leaks and Other Test Method 51 (OMT-51) Unmanned Aerial Systems Application (UAS) of Method 21 for Surface Emission Monitoring of Landfills.footnote 3

Upon detection of concentrations exceeding the limits, landfills would need to identify the cause of the exceedance and take action to eliminate it within 30 days. The location of the exceedance would need to be re-monitored in the next regular monitoring round to determine if the exceedance has been eliminated. If not eliminated at that time, a notification to the Minister of the continued exceedance would be required and the exceedance would need to be eliminated within six months.

Non-application

The proposed Regulations would no longer apply to landfills that are closed and have completed installation of final cover over the surface of the entire landfill and that meet the following criteria:

Records and annual reporting

Record-keeping and periodic reporting obligations are included in the proposed Regulations.

Record-keeping requirements would include

The proposed Regulations would include provisions for an initial notification report that contains the information relevant to the result of the methane generation assessment. Subsequent reporting would include submission of data and information on an annual basis, beginning the year after monitoring requirements first apply. Annually reported data would be related to the following:

Regulatory development

Consultation

The Department consulted with provincial and territorial governments, Indigenous partners, representatives from waste sector organizations, municipal and private sector landfill owners, academics, international partners and the public to seek views on the design of the proposed Regulations. Since January 2022, the Department has received 112 submissions in response to two publications.

In January 2022, the Department published a discussion paper titled Reducing methane emissions from Canada’s municipal solid waste landfills to seek input on proposed objectives for new regulations under CEPA. Over 100 stakeholders attended a bilingual webinar, which was held to provide an overview of the discussion paper. These stakeholders included private and municipal landfill owners and waste management and municipal associations. A “What We Heard” report was published in September 2022 that summarized the input that the Department received from interested parties.

In September 2022, the Department established a Technical Working Group (TWG) to solicit feedback on potential elements of federal regulations. The TWG included technical and waste sector experts, landfill owners and operators, provincial/territorial and municipal governments as well as other interested parties representing 37 organizations. The TWG provided technical and economic considerations for approaches to reducing methane emissions at landfills and input on potential requirements for new federal regulations.

A Proposed regulatory framework was published in April 2023. Three webinars were held to share an overview of the proposed framework, one with the TWG and two public webinars (English and French). Stakeholders provided written comments which were considered by the Department as it finalized the proposed Regulations.

Throughout the various consultation phases, the Department received input from industry associations such as the Solid Waste Association of North America, Coast Waste Management Association, Waste to Resource Ontario, Conseil des entreprises en technologies environnementales du Québec as well as municipal associations including the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, Rural Municipalities of Alberta, Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association, Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities and the Association of Municipalities of Ontario. A significant number of comments were provided directly by landfill owners including individual private sector companies and both large and small municipalities. Comments received as a result of these prepublication consultations were wide-ranging and did not necessarily align to particular stakeholder types. Themes from comments received are summarized below.

Applicability

Several stakeholders, including industry associations and landfill owners, noted that the proposed regulatory framework appeared to apply to very small landfills that would not be anticipated to generate sufficient methane to operate an active landfill gas recovery system. As a result of this feedback, the Department reviewed the inventory of potentially regulated landfills and increased the waste disposal threshold for open landfills to 450 000 tonnes of waste in place from 100 000 tonnes of waste in place. Although this would result in fewer landfills assessing methane generation to determine the need for further compliance obligations, most landfills with between 100 000 and 450 000 tonnes are not expected to exceed the methane generation threshold of 664 tonnes. This change would reduce administrative costs associated with assessment of applicability required under the proposed Regulations.

Additional concerns were noted respecting the methane generation thresholds in the proposed regulatory framework, which would determine further compliance obligations (664/1 000 tonnes), noting that there could be challenges with effectively operating methane destruction devices to manage this level of methane production. The proposed regulatory thresholds for annual methane generation that are included in the proposed Regulations align with current regulatory thresholds in other jurisdictions including California, Oregon, Washington and Maryland (all 664 tonnes) and British Columbia (1 000 tonnes). Given the experience in these jurisdictions, the Department expects these thresholds to result in achievable regulatory outcomes.

Costs and impact on project revenue

Many stakeholders, including provinces, territories, municipalities, associations and landfill operators, highlighted the increased costs that would be associated with installing new landfill gas recovery systems, particularly for smaller landfills that are typically owned by municipalities. They also raised concerns about potential revenue losses due to limitations on the ability to generate offset credits once an activity is regulated. The Department recognizes that with implementation of the proposed Regulations, some projects that can generate and sell GHG offset credits will no longer be eligible to do so under provincial and federal offset systems.

Adjustments were made to the implementation timelines in the proposed Regulations for open landfills assessed to generate an annual quantity of more than 664 tonnes, but less than 1 000 tonnes of methane. At these landfills, the implementation timeline for compliance obligations is proposed to be extended from January 1, 2029, to January 1, 2033. This extended eligibility enables smaller landfills to generate offset credits where early, voluntary operation of landfill gas recovery systems is adopted in advance of regulatory schedules.

Information on revenue streams that would support compliance with the proposed Regulations is provided in the section “Cost impacts on landfill owners and users.”

Surface methane concentration limits and monitoring requirements

Several stakeholders, including landfill operators and engineering consultants, expressed concerns related to proposed surface methane concentration limits and monitoring requirements. Although a requirement to maintain surface methane concentrations below 500 ppmv has been in place at landfills regulated in Quebec since 2009, an additional concentration limit is included in the proposed Regulations requiring that a “zone-average” surface methane concentration (the average of surface methane concentration measurements in a zone of no more than 4 500 m2) must not exceed 25 ppmv. This “zone-average” concentration limit has been implemented under California regulations since 2010 and is intended to represent the achievable average methane concentration for an active landfill gas recovery system. Stakeholders noted concerns with these emission limits, in particular, concerning whether the limits are achievable under Canadian weather conditions. The zone-average methane concentration is an indication of how well the landfill gas recovery system is functioning to draw all landfill gas into the system (and avoid emissions through the cover). The Department will continue to engage Canadian landfill owners and operators who have conducted surface emission monitoring work to confirm whether the proposed zone-average methane concentrations are problematic as a performance standard that can be applied in Canada. A standardized version of one of these drone-based methods, which includes the use of a downward-facing laser spectrometer, is under development. The Department will continue to evaluate the use of this method and incorporate necessary revisions in advance of the final Regulations. Should the Department determine that this method is unsuitable from a technical perspective, this method would not be allowed under the final Regulations.

Landfill owners noted concerns related to the costs of the proposed surface methane concentration monitoring requirements. To minimize compliance costs, the proposed Regulations allow the frequency of monitoring to be reduced from three times per year to once annually where results demonstrate levels below proposed concentration limits in three consecutive monitoring events.

Landfill gas recovery system monitoring requirements

The Proposed regulatory framework (published on Canada.ca) included a requirement for landfill owners and operators to install continuous monitoring technology on wellheads at landfills with methane generation above a specified threshold. Landfill operators highlighted the potential technical concerns and significant expense of continuous monitoring technologies for monitoring landfill gas recovery wells. As an emerging technology, continuous monitoring offers the ability to provide landfill gas systems operators with actionable data on a more frequent basis than is available through manual measurement methods. Stakeholder input on the proposal to conduct more frequent monitoring at landfills with higher methane generation indicated that more frequent monitoring does take place at projects where energy recovery is an objective and that it is difficult to generalize at which wells this more frequent monitoring is useful. Given the trend towards implementation of landfill gas to energy projects at Canadian landfills, it is anticipated that the technology will be adopted more broadly where it has the most potential to increase methane recovery. The proposed Regulations would require that all regulated landfills conduct wellfield monitoring once per month in active landfill gas recovery wells to confirm the well is under vacuum pressure, establishing a minimum frequency for this activity. Continuous monitoring technology, where installed, would satisfy the requirement to conduct monthly monitoring of wellfields.

Several engineering consultants suggested that the proposed Regulations should require the operation of methane destruction devices in accordance with the manufacturer’s recommendations to ensure destruction efficiency, rather than mandating source testing for flares and engines and compliance with temperature and retention time objectives for enclosed flares. Methane destruction devices such as flares and engines are currently subject to performance and monitoring requirements under provincial and territorial legislation or landfill operating permits to ensure adequate air quality controls and, in some cases, to ensure methane destruction. In order to minimize overlap with existing provincial and territorial permitting requirements for methane destruction devices and energy recovery systems, the proposed Regulations do not include specific requirements for periodic source testing or specify operating temperature/retention time objectives. The Department will work with provinces and territories to determine whether there are additional requirements that could be incorporated into operating permits for these devices in line with current best practices for methane destruction and air quality protection.

Federal and provincial overlap

Two provinces expressed that their provincial regulatory actions would likely achieve similar outcomes as the federal proposal. One of those provinces also suggested the development of federal benchmarks and a process to recognize provincial benchmark systems as a way to avoid the requests for equivalency agreements from provinces.

Under section 10 of CEPA, provinces and territories with regulatory provisions for landfill methane control that are determined to be equivalent in outcome to the federal regulations may seek equivalency agreements. These provinces and territories can also be authorized to oversee the implementation of the federal regulations through administrative agreements with the Department. In the absence of equivalency agreements, provincial, territorial and federal regulations or requirements would apply.

Potential impact on Indigenous communities

Indigenous communities stressed the importance of enhancing existing waste management infrastructure. They highlighted the challenges their smaller landfills would confront in adhering to federal requirements due to financial constraints, a shortage of technical expertise, absence of waste sorting services, and deficiencies in the current infrastructure. Given the applicability thresholds included in the proposed Regulations, it is not anticipated that any landfills owned or operated by Indigenous communities would be regulated. However, funding assistance is accessible through Indigenous Services Canada’s First Nation Infrastructure Fund Program to facilitate infrastructure development at landfills serving First Nations communities.

Modern treaty obligations and Indigenous engagement and consultation

As required by the Cabinet Directive on the Federal Approach to Modern Treaty Implementation, an assessment of modern treaty implications was conducted. The assessment concluded that it is unlikely any landfills owned and operated by Indigenous communities would exceed the applicability thresholds included in the proposed Regulations. The assessment did not identify any modern treaty implications or obligations beyond a requirement to engage three modern treaty signatories where municipally owned landfills that may have regulatory obligations are located within treaty boundaries.footnote 4

Throughout the consultation process, the Department engaged with Indigenous peoples in various ways:

Efforts were made to directly contact representatives from provincial, territorial, regional and national Indigenous groups to understand views on whether the proposed actions would result in particular challenges or concerns from an Indigenous perspective. General views from Indigenous representatives on the Discussion Paper were included in a published “What We Heard” report. While Indigenous peoples raised some concerns about the inadequacy of current waste management infrastructure serving First Nations and Inuit communities, overall, they were generally supportive of the proposed Regulations. The Department will inform Indigenous groups of the opportunity to comment further upon publication of the proposed Regulations in the Canada Gazette, Part I.

Instrument choice

With the objective of securing methane emission reductions from Canadian landfills by 2030, the Department considered four policy options: maintaining the status quo, using voluntary instruments, implementing a market-based approach, and implementing both a market-based approach and a regulatory approach. The following considerations were evaluated and ultimately led to the proposed regulatory approach being developed.

Status quo approach

While several provinces have regulatory measures in place to control landfill methane emissions, there are no federal requirements to reduce these emissions. The provinces of British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec have implemented regulations requiring larger landfills to install landfill gas capture and control systems emissions. Although the regulatory approach in place in Alberta targeting large industrial GHG emitters applies to landfills, these regulations have not, to date, applied emission reduction requirements to any landfills (landfills have demonstrated they do not emit more than the 100 000 tonnes CO2e threshold requiring compliance). New Brunswick has signalled the intent to update performance standards for landfill methane control under provincial landfill operating permit requirements.

The regulatory approach across Canada is uneven and additional emissions reductions could be limited as a result of the status quo approach. For these reasons, current provincial measures would not alone significantly reduce methane emissions from Canadian landfills and may compromise Canada’s ability to meet its domestic and international commitments. Therefore, maintaining the status quo is not an acceptable option.

Voluntary approach

Voluntary instruments under CEPA, such as pollution prevention plans, were considered as a policy approach for reducing landfill methane emissions. Voluntary instruments can provide greater flexibility in achieving similar outcomes to regulations; however, they do not guarantee that the environmental objectives will be achieved. In order to secure the emission reductions needed to meet Canada’s methane reduction targets by 2030, a regulatory approach was selected over a voluntary approach.

Market-based approach

There are market-based policy measures in place that are expected to contribute to landfill methane emission reductions including the federal Clean Fuel Regulations and the Canadian Greenhouse Gas Offset Credit System Regulations, which provide opportunities to generate and sell credits for reducing landfill methane emissions through either landfill gas recovery and destruction projects or through projects that utilize recovered landfill gas to produce low-carbon fuels and energy. The Department published an offset protocol for Landfill Methane Recovery and Destruction in June 2022 under the Canadian Greenhouse Gas Offset Credit System Regulations to enable the generation of offset credits from projects that reduce methane emissions from landfills. Similar offset protocols exist under the Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec offset systems.

Although the market-based measures in place would support certain landfill methane reduction projects, they do not incent the more stringent monitoring requirements that are included in the proposed Regulations. Given their voluntary nature, market-based measures alone are not anticipated to secure the needed emission reductions by 2030.

Both market-based and regulatory approaches

Current policies are not expected to secure sufficient emission reductions by 2030, requiring action by the federal government. The implementation of a regulation made under CEPA is considered a primary instrument to achieve this goal as it is very likely to ensure that methane emission reductions are achieved. This regulatory measure would result in a consistent and more stringent approach that will secure emission reductions at the largest landfills across Canada.

Although the market-based measures described above will continue to support certain regulated landfills once the proposed Regulations are finalized, some projects would no longer be eligible to generate credits for voluntary action once regulated. Landfills where low-carbon energy and fuels are produced would continue to benefit from the growing market for this energy and fuel. The proposed Regulations would not significantly influence the number of credits that landfills can create under the Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR) since a 1 000-tonne methane generation threshold is already used to limit the creation of compliance credits for landfill methane emission reductions. The compliance credits that can be generated under the CFR for the supply of low-carbon fuel and energy are not affected by the proposed Regulations. Once a landfill is regulated under the proposed Regulations, an offset project under the Canadian Offset Credit System Regulations involving recovery and destruction of landfill methane would be considered ineligible. As a result of the proposed Regulations, as of January 1, 2029, most regulated landfills would not be eligible to generate federal offset credits (or register offset credit projects) for new or expanded landfill gas recovery systems. The remainder of regulated landfills would become ineligible on January 1, 2033. These market-based measures would act to incent and reward early action taken to install and operate methane control systems at certain landfills. The proposed Regulations are intended to secure the needed emission reductions in time to meet Canada’s 2030 commitments.

Regulatory analysis

The estimated total present value cost for the proposed Regulations during the period of 2025 to 2040 amounts to $581 million, while the cumulative GHG reductions are estimated to be 107 Mt CO2e. Overall, from 2025 to 2040, the proposed regulations are expected to generate a total benefit of $11.162 billion and a net benefit of $10.582 billion. On average, the cost per tonne of GHG reduction is projected to be approximately $5 per tonne of CO2e.

As shown in Figure 1 below, the most significant costs will be incurred in 2027, 2029, and 2033 due to significant regulatory milestones. The compliance with performance standards and monitoring requirements begins in 2027 for landfills that already have landfill gas recovery systems in place before January 1, 2017. Costs increase again in 2029 as additional compliance obligations begin, particularly for landfills installing new landfill gas recovery systems. Another notable cost increase is seen in 2033 as more landfills begin the installation of new landfill gas recovery systems. The compliance costs in other years reflect the incremental operations, maintenance (O&M) and monitoring costs needed once new capital investments are made. The figures 1 and 2 below provide the annual incremental compliance costs (in 2022 dollars) and the annual net GHG reductions (in CO2 equivalent) associated with the proposed Regulations. Data from figures 1 and 2 are collected from the cost-benefit analysis.

Figure 1: Undiscounted incremental costs

Figure 1: Undiscounted incremental costs – Text version below the graph

Figure 1: Undiscounted incremental costs - Text version

Figure 1 illustrates the annual incremental costs (in 2022 dollars) associated with complying with the proposed Regulations. The breakdown of expected costs for regulated landfills is as follows: About $1 million in 2025, $0 in 2026, $114 million in 2027, $18 million in 2028, $187 million in 2029, $24 million in 2030, $24 million in 2031, $24 million in 2032, $99 million in 2033, $26 million in 2034, $26 million in 2035, $26 million in 2036, $26 million in 2037, $26 million in 2038, $26 million in 2039, and $26 million in 2040.

As shown in Figure 2 below, from 2027 to 2040, it is expected that emissions of methane (CH4) will be reduced by more than 5 Mt CO2e annually as of 2027, more than 7 Mt CO2e annually as of 2029, and more than 8 Mt CO2e annually as of 2033, primarily as a result of the capital investments made in 2027, 2029 and 2033.

Figure 2: Net GHG emission reductions

Figure 2: Net GHG emission reductions – Text version below the graph

Figure 2: Net GHG emission reductions - Text version

Figure 2 illustrates the estimated annual net greenhouse gas reductions (in CO2 equivalent) achieved by landfills through their compliance efforts under the proposed Regulations: 5.3 Mt in 2027, 5.3 Mt in 2028, 7.6 Mt in 2029, 7.5 Mt in 2030, 7.6 Mt in 2031, 7.6 Mt in 2032, 8.4 Mt in 2033, 8.3 Mt in 2034, 8.3 Mt in 2035, 8.3 Mt in 2036, 8.3 Mt in 2037, 8.4 Mt in 2038, 8.3 Mt in 2039, and 8.3 Mt in 2040.

Analytical framework

To estimate the impact of the proposed Regulations, an analysis was conducted to quantify the incremental benefits of GHG (CH4) emission reductions and considering associated GHG (CO2) emission increases. The analysis then monetized two main categories of incremental impacts: the costs of compliance (including administration) and the benefits of GHG emission reductions. Impacts attributable to the proposed Regulations are analyzed over 16 years (2025 to 2040), which covers the period after the proposed Regulations come into force (2025), then applies fully across the sector (2033) and then extends to 2040 to illustrate the costs and benefits that would accrue over time as a result of the proposed Regulations. Existing provincial regulatory requirements were assumed to remain unchanged in the baseline and no additional methane emission reductions above the current collection efficiency were modelled.

Department’s Landfill Gas Inventory

To support the cost-benefit analysis, the Department created an inventory of landfills anticipated to be affected by the proposed Regulations. Information in the inventory includes

Data in this landfill inventory has been provided to the Department by landfill owners and operators through voluntary surveys, with the most recent survey being conducted in summer 2023. This inventory forms the basis for the calculations and estimates described in this analysis.

Modelling methane generation

The Department estimated future annual methane generation at potentially regulated landfills using a model which calculates the quantity of annual methane generated through the decay of all disposed biodegradable waste. The key input to this model is the quantity of municipal solid waste disposed from the landfill’s first year of operation until its closure, as described above. The model calculates the quantity of methane generated from waste deposited in any given year which decays over several decades at an initially high-rate that decreases over time. The model and model parameters used, including waste decay rates and material specific degradable organic content parameters (that describe how much degradable material is in waste disposed), align with the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and those used in the National Inventory Report on Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks (NIR). This is a common model used by governments and the industry to estimate methane generation. The model parameters used are specific to each province and territory, accounting for regional differences in waste composition and moisture conditions that influence methane generation rates at a landfill. The results of this model show that methane generation increases over time as waste accumulates in landfills. If operated for long enough, the methane generation eventually reaches steady-state until the landfill closes. Once closed, the methane generated in a landfill will decline for several decades.

In this analysis, future waste disposal for landfills in the inventory was assumed constant from 2022 until the landfill reaches the reported or estimated closure year. Based on current estimated landfill closure years, the total capacity of waste disposal at landfills in the inventory does decline during the time frame of the analysis. To account for future waste disposal for which there is currently no planned capacity, a quantity of additional future annual waste disposal at regulated landfills was estimated, on a provincial and territorial basis, to account for the impact of population growth and waste diversion trends (consistent with assumptions used in the Department’s most recent GHG projections analysisfootnote 5) and assuming that the proportion of total waste disposed at regulated landfills remains constant in the future. The analysis assumes that the incremental waste would be disposed of through expansions of existing landfill capacity and not in new landfills.

The summation of annual methane generation calculated for each regulated landfill and for the incremental waste disposed shows a relatively constant level of methane generation over the time frame of the analysis. A significant portion of methane generation occurs within the first few years of waste disposal. Figure 3 shows the annual waste disposal included in the analysis and annual methane generation (for the years 2025 to 2040). The table shows that the estimated annual waste disposal at regulated landfills is anticipated to decline slightly until 2030 (in response to waste diversion policies) and then increase in line with population growth. The modelled methane generation shows a relatively constant level over the time frame of the analysis, decreasing or increasing slightly in response to temporal changes in the projected quantities of annual waste disposed over time.

Figure 3: Annual waste disposed and annual methane generated (2025 to 2040)

Figure 3: Annual waste disposed and annual methane generated (2025 to 2040) – Text version below the graph

Figure 3: Annual waste disposed and annual methane generated (2025 to 2040) - Text version

Figure 3 illustrates the quantity of annual municipal solid waste disposed in landfills expected to comply with the proposed Regulations. The breakdown of expected annual waste disposal in affected landfills is as follows: about 17 Mt in 2025, 17 Mt in 2026, 17 Mt in 2027, 16 Mt in 2028, 16 Mt in 2029, 16 Mt in 2030, 17 Mt in 2031, 17 Mt in 2032, 17 Mt in 2033, 17 Mt in 2034, 17 Mt in 2035, 17 Mt in 2036, 17 Mt in 2037, 17 Mt in 2038, 18 Mt in 2039, and 18 Mt in 2040.

Additionally, Figure 3 illustrates the quantity of annual methane generated at landfills expected to comply with the proposed Regulations. The breakdown of expected annual methane generation at affected landfills is as follows: about 904 kt in 2025, 906 kt in 2026, 904 kt in 2027, 901 kt in 2028, 897 kt in 2029, 889 kt in 2030, 884 kt in 2031, 877 kt in 2032, 870 kt in 2033, 863 kt in 2034, 857 kt in 2035, 853 kt in 2036, 850 kt in 2037, 848 kt in 2038, 843 kt in 2039, and 840 kt in 2040.

Estimating methane recovery in baseline and regulatory scenarios

The methodology for evaluating incremental impacts involves the comparison of the baseline scenario and the regulatory scenario. The typical approach to reducing landfill methane emissions involves installation of equipment to recover and combust landfill gas, which results in the conversion of methane to carbon dioxide. The baseline and regulatory scenarios quantify methane emissions reductions (equivalent to the quantity of methane recovered and combusted) as well as the carbon dioxide emissions associated with combustion of the recovered methane. The difference between the regulatory and baseline quantities of methane recovery represents the potential methane emission reductions achievable through the implementation of the proposed Regulations. The additional recovered methane (the difference between the regulatory and baseline quantities) is adjusted to reflect that 0.3% of the methane delivered to a destruction device is emitted without being destroyed via combustion.

Baseline scenario

The baseline scenario assumes a status quo in which federal regulations are not implemented, and reflects current provincial and municipal measures in place as of 2022. For landfills with no landfill gas recovery systems in place (at the end of 2022), future baseline methane recovery was assumed to be zero.

For landfills with existing landfill gas recovery systems in place, future methane recovery was calculated by assuming that, in future years, landfills would collect the same proportion of generated methane as in 2022. This proportion is termed “collection efficiency” and is equal to the quantity of recovered methane divided by the quantity of generated methane (on an annual basis). Collection efficiency for the year 2022 was calculated using the reported or extrapolated (from previous year reports) quantity of methane recovered and a modelled estimate of annual methane generation calculated by the Department. Baseline collection efficiencies estimated for landfills with existing landfill gas recovery systems ranged from 10% to 93%. The 2022 average collection efficiency (by province/territory) was used as the baseline collection efficiency to estimate baseline methane recovery associated with the methane generated from the “additional waste” modelled in the analysis. To calculate future annual baseline methane recovery, future (modelled) annual methane generation was multiplied by the 2022 collection efficiency.

Regulatory scenario

The regulatory scenario assumed that full implementation of the proposed Regulations would result in 75% collection efficiency at all open, regulated landfills and 90% at closed, regulated landfills. These values represent the highest technically achievable collection efficiencies for landfill gas recovery systems. Future annual methane generation was multiplied by either 75% or 90% to calculate the regulatory scenario annual methane recovery through the time frame of the analysis. The key assumption in this analysis is that landfills that comply with the proposed Regulations would be achieving the highest industry standard collection efficiencies that are typically referenced as achievable performance standards.

Monetary values

All undiscounted dollar figures are presented in 2022 Canadian dollars (CAD). Present value terms have been discounted at 2% annually, which is the near-term Ramsey discount rate now utilized by the Government of Canada when monetizing GHG reductions. The same discount rate has been applied across both costs and benefits to provide analytical consistency, and 2024 was selected as the ’present’ year for discounting as it is assumed to be when the proposed Regulations would be registered as final regulations.

Analysis of regulatory coverage and compliance

To estimate the incremental benefits and costs of the proposed Regulations, the analysis considered who would be affected (regulatory coverage) and how they would most likely respond (their compliance strategies), as described below.

Regulatory coverage

The proposed Regulations would reduce landfill methane emissions by implementing facility and equipment-level requirements. Facility-level requirements include performance standards (surface methane concentration limits) and a restriction on venting that could require the installation of a methane mitigation system such as a recovery and flaring system to prevent fugitive emissions of landfill methane into the atmosphere. Depending on the quantity of methane being generated, landfill owners or operators may be able to comply with the regulations through installation of alternative cover systems (e.g. biocovers) or through improving or repairing cover systems. Equipment-level requirements would include the implementation of monitoring programs to identify methane leaks and optimize the recovery of methane through regular recovery well adjustments.

Landfills that exceed the waste disposal and methane generation thresholds would be required to take incremental action to comply with the proposed Regulations. The Department estimates that 179 landfills (152 publicly owned and 27 privately owned) would initially be subject to the proposed Regulations and be required to conduct a methane generation assessment. Of these, 146 (122 publicly owned and 24 privately owned) are anticipated to be required to comply with surface methane concentration performance standards, methane destruction and monitoring requirements. There are over 3 000 landfills in Canada that are below the waste disposal applicability threshold and would have no obligations under the proposed Regulations within the period of analysis.

Regulatory compliance

The proposed Regulations would establish a performance standard consisting of surface methane concentration limits for areas of the landfill under intermediate and final cover and in areas that have not received waste for one year. Although there are several existing approaches in use for controlling surface methane emissions, for modelling purposes, it is assumed that landfills required to reduce their methane emissions would install a new, or expand an existing, active landfill gas recovery and flaring system. Although no “new” landfills were included in the inventory analysis, compliance costs were estimated for management of methane generated from future waste that would be disposed in each province and territory, above the quantity already accounted for in the inventory.

The proposed Regulations include specific monitoring requirements for surface methane concentration monitoring, methane leak detection and landfill gas recovery well monitoring. Costs for compliance with these requirements are assumed to be incurred at all regulated landfills.

Compliance costs

Scope of compliance costs

The scope of these costs includes capital, operating, and maintenance costs for new or expanded active landfill gas recovery and flaring systems. These systems are assumed to be installed for the landfill to meet the performance standards. The scope also includes specific monitoring and administrative costs associated with requirements in the proposed Regulations.

Landfills affected by the proposed Regulations are expected to incur incremental capital and operating costs associated with the installation and operation of new or expanded active landfill gas recovery and flaring systems. The proposed Regulations include a phased approach that depends on the status of landfill gas recovery at the coming-into-force of the proposed Regulations and the modelled annual methane generation at the landfill.

The proposed Regulations introduce initial compliance obligations in 2025 that are limited to an assessment of methane generation. Compliance with performance standards and monitoring requirements would begin in 2027 at a subset of regulated landfills (those with landfill gas recovery systems in place before January 1, 2017). Other compliance requirements would be pertinent to landfills that install new methane control systems, starting in 2029 or 2033 (depending on the annual methane generation assessment).

It is assumed that capital costs associated with the installation of new or expanded landfill gas recovery systems are incurred in the first year where the performance standards apply. Operating costs are assumed to begin in the year where capital costs are incurred. These costs continue to be incurred annually until the end of the analytical period.

The approach to calculating capital and operating costs is based on methodologies and cost benchmarks developed for the Department through two key studies: GHD Study of Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Gas Capture and Use in Canada (2018) and Comcor Economic Analysis of Canadian Landfill Gas Recovery and Utilization Projects Summary Report (2021). GHD developed benchmarks for capital (equipment and construction), operating, and maintenance costs related to the installation or expansion of landfill gas recovery and flaring systems at the largest landfills in Canada. As well, Comcor Environmental Limited also conducted a study aimed at reviewing, refining, and updating these costing benchmarks as well as the overall costing approach. In addition, costing information has been provided to the Department by landfill owners in response to information requests. Information on waste disposal, landfilled surface area, number of existing landfill gas recovery wells and capacity of existing flares in the Department’s Landfill Gas Inventory was used to as part of the cost analysis.

Some regulated landfills would be able to offset compliance costs through potential additional revenue sources including

Given the complexity of assessing which landfills would be in a position to take advantage of these opportunities and the actual revenues associated with these opportunities, revenue associated with the infrastructure that could be required to comply with the proposed Regulations was not quantitatively assessed.

The costing methodology estimated costs for components of landfill gas recovery and flaring systems, including landfill gas collection wellfield infrastructure, blowers, and flares. Engineering design, oversight, permitting, and administration costs were assumed to be 15% of the total infrastructure capital costs. Based on the Departmental 2023 Landfill Gas Inventory, out of the 146 landfills expected to be required to comply with the proposed Regulations, seven landfills were determined to have landfill gas recovery and destruction systems that already achieve the target collection efficiencies. Therefore, the Department estimated capital costs for 139 landfills.

Landfill gas collection wellfield

A significant component of the costs for an active landfill gas recovery system is the installation of the gas recovery wellfield. The wellfield is an interconnected network of wells and underground piping that is installed progressively at a landfill, following waste disposal. The methodology used to estimate the number of new wells required at landfills with existing landfill gas recovery systems assumes additional wells would be needed to recover the quantity of landfill gas that would not be recovered in the baseline scenario and would otherwise be emitted. One well was costed for each additional 50 m3/hr of landfill gas not recovered in the baseline scenario.footnote 6 For new landfill gas recovery systems, the estimated number of wells was based on the current and future surface area of the landfill that will be used for waste disposal. A well density (the number of wells per acre of landfill surface area) of one well per acre was used in the analysis.footnote 7

The average cost to install a landfill gas collection well, including components such as vertical well drilling, wellhead installation, underground piping network, and a condensate removal system, was estimated at $40,300 per well. The average cost of landfill gas collection wells for landfills included in this analysis is estimated to be $1.92 million per landfill. This cost represents a one-time investment over the time frame of the analysis.

Finally, 78 landfills would install 1 715 additional wells at existing systems by 2027, 36 landfills would install 1 890 wells at new systems by 2029 and an additional 25 landfills would install 675 wells at existing and new systems by 2033. The estimated total number of additional wells per landfill included in the costing analysis, between 2025 and 2040, ranged from 12 to 365 for new systems and 1 to 261 for system expansions.

Landfill gas recovery and destruction

Blowers

Active landfill gas recovery systems include equipment to move gas out of the landfill to flares or energy recovery systems, such as reciprocating engines to produce electricity or upgrading systems that produce renewable natural gas. However, compliance with the proposed Regulations does not require the use of energy recovery systems.

The blowers create vacuum pressure in collection wells to draw landfill gas into the flaring system. The estimated capacity of the blowers costed in this analysis is based on the maximum estimated additional annual landfill gas recovery over the system’s operational lifespan. The costs associated with the blower are one-time expenses incurred over the operational lifetime of the system. For expansions to existing methane recovery systems, the Department estimated that the cost for additional blower capacity at regulated landfills ranges from $6,500 to $654,000. For new landfill gas recovery systems, blower costs included mechanical and electrical equipment enclosed in a container, ranging in cost from $1.5 million to $1.9 million. The average cost of blowers for landfills included in this analysis is $732,000 per landfill. This cost represents a one-time investment over the operational lifetime of the system.

Finally, 78 landfills would increase blower capacity at existing systems by 2027, 36 landfills would install blowers at new systems by 2029, and an additional 25 landfills would increase blower capacity at existing and new systems by 2033.

Enclosed flares

Regulated landfills would either add new or additional flaring capacity by installing an enclosed flare, sized to accommodate the maximum future landfill gas flowrate. Costing benchmarks provided flare costs based on capacity ranges. Where no information on current flare capacity was available, capacity was assumed to be the most recent landfill gas recovery flowrate. The estimated costs for installing new enclosed flares ranged from $320,000 to $397,000. The average cost of new flares for landfills included in this analysis is $368,000 per landfill per flare representing a one-time investment over the operational lifetime of the system.

Finally, 36 landfills would increase flaring capacity at existing systems by 2027, 35 landfills would install flaring systems at new facilities by 2029, and an additional 25 landfills would increase flaring capacity at existing and new systems by 2033.

Table 1 below summarizes the compliance costs for the installation or expansion of landfill gas collection wellfield, the installation of blowers, and the installation of enclosed flares.

Table 1: Capital compliance costs (millions of dollars) from 2025 to 2040
  • Number of years: 16 (2025 to 2040)
  • Base year for costing: 2022
  • Present value base year: 2024
  • Discount rate: 2% per year
Compliance action Average undiscounted Number of landfills Total undiscounted Total present value
Installation of landfill gas collection wellfield 1.92 139 266 237
Installation of blowers 0.73 139 102 90
Installation of enclosed flares 0.37 96 35 32
Total CAPEX compliance costs 2.90 139 404 359

As shown in Table 1, from 2025 to 2040, the average undiscounted capital expenditure (CAPEX) for

From 2025 to 2040, the average total undiscounted capital expenditure (CAPEX) at 139 landfills is $2.90 million per landfill. The total undiscounted CAPEX during this period is $404 million and the total present value is $359 million.

Operation and maintenance costs

The annual operation and maintenance (O&M) costs include those related to the regular monitoringfootnote 8 and adjustment of landfill gas recovery wells, maintenance of system components, and costs associated with the annual amount of electricity used, primarily for operating the blowers. Provincial and territorial electricity pricesfootnote 9 for the year 2022 were utilized to calculate the electricity costs associated with running the landfill gas recovery system, with average electricity rate increases of 43% between 2025 and 2050 cumulatively.footnote 10

The proposed Regulations include requirements for monthly monitoring of active landfill gas recovery wells to ensure the vacuum pressure on individual wells or headers is negative. This monitoring refers to the monitoring of methane emissions across the surface of the landfill using methane monitoring devices (including drone-based and ground-based methane detectors) to evaluate compliance with the performance standard and identify methane leaks. Annual costs for monitoring and adjustment of landfill gas recovery wells will depend on the number of wells that require monitoring. There is variability in the current (baseline) frequency of wellfield monitoring across Canadian landfills, depending on provincial regulatory requirements, existence of energy recovery systems and the site-specific variability in the landfill gas migration. Monthly monitoring costs are estimated for all additional wells installed in this analysis. Where an existing system with energy generation projects is in place, monthly baseline monitoring is assumed to take place at existing wells, so no incremental increased costs associated with this activity were included. For landfills with existing systems where there are no energy recovery systems in operation, the analysis assumes that, in the baseline, monitoring occurs quarterly; therefore, additional monitoring costs for existing recovery wells at these landfills are included in the estimated operational costs to account for the monthly monitoring included in the proposed Regulations.

Operating costs are assumed to begin in the first year that they are required by the proposed Regulations and to continue to the end year of the analysis. Annual estimated incremental O&M costs range from $1,800 to $375,000 per landfill. The average annual O&M compliance costs per landfill are $62,000 for the 83 landfills expected to begin incurring them in 2027, $124,000 for the 36 landfills expected to begin incurring them in 2029, and $84,000 for the 27 landfills expected to begin incurring them in 2033. Table 2 below summarizes the O&M compliance costs over this period.

Table 2: O&M compliance costs (millions of dollars) from 2025 to 2040
  • Number of years: 16 (2025 to 2040)
  • Base year for costing: 2022
  • Present value base year: 2024
  • Discount rate: 2% per year
Compliance action Average undiscounted Number of years of compliance Number of affected landfills Total undiscounted Total present value
Annual OPEX compliance costs 0.062 14 83 75 62
0.124 12 36 54 44
0.084 8 27 18 14
Total OPEX compliance costs - - 146 146 120

O&M: Operation and Maintenance; OPEX: Operating expenditure

As shown in Table 2, from 2025 to 2040

Monitoring surface methane concentrations and methane leaks

Regular monitoring would be required by the proposed Regulations to assess surface methane concentrations and to identify the location of methane leaks, informing follow-up activities to make repairs or system adjustments. Monitoring refers to the monitoring of methane emissions across the surface of the landfill using methane monitoring devices (including drone-based and ground-based methane detectors) to evaluate compliance with the performance standard and identify and repair methane leaks.

Compliance costs related to monitoring include annual costs for surface methane concentration monitoring and methane leak detection, both of which would be required at regulated landfills three times per year. Surface methane concentration monitoring events were cost assuming the use of both drone-based and ground-based methane detectors.

Landfills located in Quebec that are regulated under the Regulation respecting the landfilling and incineration of residual materials are required to conduct monitoring of surface methane concentrations three times per year which aligns with the requirements for surface methane concentration monitoring under the proposed Regulations. As such, compliance costs related to monitoring at these landfills include only monitoring for equipment methane leaks.

The primary driver for the cost per survey is the time to conduct the survey, with monitoring effort proportional to the surface area of the landfill. Some larger landfills may elect to conduct surface methane concentration monitoring using on-site staff, reducing compliance costs, while others may rely on consultants to perform monitoring work. To avoid underestimation, cost estimates assume this monitoring work would be completed by a consultant.

Monitoring of equipment components to identify methane leaks involves use of handheld methane detectors and is assumed to be conducted by operators of the landfill gas recovery system.

Monitoring costs are assumed to begin in the first year that they are required by the proposed Regulations and to continue to the end year of the analysis. Annual estimated incremental monitoring costs range from $6,000 to $282,000 per landfill. The average annual monitoring compliance costs per landfill are $58,000 for the 83 landfills expected to begin incurring them in 2027, $53,000 for the 36 landfills expected to begin incurring them in 2029, and $25,000 for the 27 landfills expected to begin incurring them in 2033. Table 3 below summarizes the monitoring compliance costs over this period.

Table 3: Monitoring compliance costs (millions of dollars) from 2025 to 2040
  • Number of years: 16 (2025 to 2040)
  • Base year for costing: 2022
  • Present value base year: 2024
  • Discount rate: 2% per year
Compliance action Average undiscounted monitoring costs Number of years of compliance Number of affected landfills Total undiscounted monitoring costs Total present value monitoring costs
Annual monitoring compliance costs for landfills complying with 2027 timeline 0.058 14 83 68 56
Annual monitoring compliance costs for landfills complying with 2029 timeline 0.053 12 36 23 19
Annual monitoring compliance costs for landfills complying with 2033 timeline 0.025 8 27 5 4
Total monitoring compliance costs - - 146 96 79

As shown in Table 3, from 2025 to 2040

Industry administrative costs

The proposed Regulations would impose incremental administrative costs to industry attributable to learning about the new requirements, assessing applicability, increased recordkeeping requirements, and reporting. From 2025 to 2040, the average annual administrative cost for landfill owners and operators is estimated at $0.9 million or $6,335 per landfill, as shown in Table 4 below. Additional information on administrative costs is provided in the “One-for-one rule” section.

Government administrative costs

Government costs for administration of the proposed Regulations are based on resources required to support regulatory reporting, compliance promotion and enforcement. This includes activities such as implementing electronic reporting systems, reviewing information submitted in regulatory reports and assessing the performance of the regulations. Promoting compliance with the proposed Regulations would involve conducting awareness campaigns, developing guidance, and training materials, and engaging in outreach activities to disseminate information about the proposed Regulations.

Enforcement costs would include activities related to monitoring and verifying compliance with the Regulations. This would involve conducting inspections, audits, and investigations to assess compliance levels, as well as taking appropriate actions against non-compliant entities. These enforcement efforts require dedicated resources, trained personnel, and technology to effectively carry out compliance monitoring and enforcement activities.

From 2025 to 2040, the total present value cost to the Government of Canada associated with administration, compliance promotion and enforcement of the Regulations is estimated at $12 million.

Summary of costs

The Table 4 below provides the summary of all costs pertinent to the proposed Regulations. However, the costs to generate methane assessment in 2025 are not included for ease of presentation.

Table 4: Summary of compliance and administrative costs (millions of dollars) for all 146 landfills from 2025 to 2040
  • Number of years: 16 (2025 to 2040)
  • Base year for costing: 2022
  • Present value base year: 2024
  • Discount rate: 2%
Source Undiscounted 2027 Undiscounted 2033 Undiscounted 2040 Discounted total 2025–2040 Annualized discounted
Capital costs 100 77 4 359 26
Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs 5 12 12 120 9
Monitoring costs 6 8 8 79 6
Industry administrative costs 0.9 0.9 0.9 11 0.8
Total cost to industry 112 98 25 569 42
Government administrative costs 1.5 0.9 0.9 12 0.9
Total cost to industry and government 114 99 26 581 43

As shown, in above Table 4, from 2027 to 2040, the total present value for

Once required to control methane emissions under the new federal regulations, eligibility to generate offset credits or to renew existing offset credit projects will be eliminated. The impact of the regulations on the eligibility to create and sell offset credits represents a lost opportunity to create revenue at regulated landfills.

Benefits

The proposed Regulations would reduce GHG emissions by increasing the number of landfills that recover methane and increase the quantity of methane recovered at landfills with existing landfill gas recovery systems or destroyed in biocovers.

While the proposed Regulations are expected to lead to an increase in methane combustion, resulting in carbon dioxide emissions, this impact is more than offset by the benefits of reducing methane emissions. Similarly, the combustion process also produces emissions of air contaminants like particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and carbon monoxide, but these are expected to be offset by the reductions in volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions that result from methane combustion. The estimated change in air pollutant emissions and their contribution to the overall national emission levels is expected to be small (see Table 7).

Quantification of benefits

The quantification of benefits involves estimating the reduction in methane emissions attributable to the proposed Regulations, which encompasses two key scenarios: the baseline scenario and the regulatory scenario. For this estimation, the reduction in methane emissions is equivalent to the increased recovery of landfill methane that is associated with implementation of the proposed Regulations. The baseline and regulatory scenarios describe the future quantity of annual methane recovery and destruction. The methane emission reductions attributed to the proposed Regulations are the difference between the annual quantity of methane recovery calculated for the baseline and regulatory scenarios. The approach to estimating baseline and regulatory scenario methane recovery is described in the “Analytical framework” section.

There are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) associated with the destruction of methane through combustion in devices such as flares and engines. Although the increase in CO2 emissions is included in the analysis, these emissions are considered biogenic under IPCC approaches to GHG accounting. N2O emissions are negligible and do not appear as a distinct emission quantified in this analysis for which a global warming potential (GWP) of 25 was employed to convert methane (CH4) estimates to CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Table 5 below outlines the GHG impact of the proposed Regulations for selected years.

Table 5: Net GHG reductions in selected years (in Mt of CO2e)
GHG impact 2027 2030 2033 2040 Total
2025–2040
Reduction in methane emissions 6 8.5 9.4 9.3 121
Increase in CO2 emissions from the combustion of methane in destruction devices 0.7 0.9 1 1 13
Net GHG reduction (reduction — increase) 5.3 7.5 8.4 8.3 107

As shown in the above Table 5, the total reduction in methane emissions (Mt CO2e) from 2025 to 2040 is estimated to be 121 Mt, with 6 Mt in 2027, 8.5 Mt in 2030, 9.4 Mt in 2033, and 9.3 Mt in 2040. The total increase in CO2 emissions (Mt CO2e) from the combustion of methane in destruction devices from 2027 to 2040 is estimated to be 13 Mt, with 0.7 Mt in 2027, 0.9 Mt in 2030, 1 Mt in 2033, and 1 Mt in 2040. The net reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Mt CO2e), calculated as the difference between reduction and increase, is estimated to be 107 Mt from 2027 to 2040, with 5.3 Mt in 2027, 7.5 Mt in 2030, 8.4 Mt in 2033, and 8.3 Mt in 2040. For national accounting purposes, the reduction in GHG emissions does not consider emissions due to combustion of biogenic methane and is 121 Mt CO2e over the time frame of the analysis.

The proposed Regulations are estimated to result in a 50% reduction in methane emission from municipal solid waste landfills in 2030 (relative to 2019 levels).

Monetized benefits

Monetized benefits have been derived from 2025 to 2040. To monetize the benefits of GHG emission reductions, the quantity of avoided GHG emissions each year was multiplied by the Department’s schedule of the value of the social cost of methane (SCM) and social cost of carbon (SCC).footnote 11 The value of SCM employed in this analysis and expressed in constant 2022 dollars is $2,971 per tonne of CH4 in 2027 and increases to $4,479 in 2040 per tonne of CH4. The value of SCC employed in this analysis and expressed in constant 2022 dollars is $299 per tonne of CO2 in 2027 and increases to $365 per tonne of CO2 in 2040. The increase in CO2 emissions was also monetized to evaluate the net value of emissions reductions of the proposed Regulations. Table 6 below outlines the GHG reductions achieved in selected years.

Table 6: Monetized benefits (disbenefits) of changes in GHG emissions (millions of dollars)
Monetized benefits Undiscounted
2027		 Undiscounted
2033		 Undiscounted
2040 		 Discounted total
2025–2040		 Annualized
Discounted
Value of CH4
(using SCM)		 713 1,367 1,670 14,797 1,090
Value of COfootnote 2
(using SCC)		 (197) (340) (374) (3,635) (268)
Net value 515 1,027 1,296 11,162 822

As shown in the above Table 6, the monetized benefits, denoted as the value of CH4 using the social cost of methane (SCM), are estimated as follows: undiscounted values are $713 million in 2027, $1,367 million in 2033, and $1,670 million in 2040. The total discounted value from 2025 to 2040 is $14,797 million, and, on an annualized basis, the average discounted value is $1,090 million. The negative monetized benefits due to the increases in CO2 emissions, expressed as the value of CO2 using the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), are as follows: undiscounted values are $197 million in 2027, $340 million in 2033, and $374 million in 2040. The total discounted value from 2025 to 2040 is $3,635 million, and, on an annualized basis, the average discounted value is $268 million. The monetized benefits, represented as the net value, are as follows: undiscounted values are $515 million in 2027, $1,027 million in 2033, and $1,296 million in 2040. The total discounted value from 2025 to 2040 is $11,162 million, and, on an annualized basis, the average discounted value is $822 million.

Air pollution emissions and impacts

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are emitted through fugitive emissions of landfill gas and in non-combusted landfill gas. When landfill gas is recovered and combusted, either in a landfill gas flare or engine, VOCs are destroyed.

The increase in methane combustion at landfills is expected to increase emissions of other air pollutants, including nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulphur dioxide (SOx), and particulate matter (PM). Landfill gas makes up a very small percentage (less than 0.1%) of national level VOC emissions (6 200 tonnes of VOCs were reported from landfillsfootnote 12 in 2021). Estimates of the changes in landfill gas emissions of VOCs and other air pollutants attributable to the proposed Regulations are presented in Table 7.

Table 7: Air pollutant emission increases (decreases) in selected years (in tonnes)
Impact on emissions 2027 2033 2040 Total
2025–2040
Reduction in VOC emissions due to the combustion of landfill gas in destruction devices (tonnes) (1,938) (3,034) (3,012) (38,998)
Increase in NOx emissions from the combustion of methane in destruction devices (tonnes) 231 361 359 4,643
Increase in SOx emissions from the combustion of methane in destruction devices (tonnes) 538 842 836 10,824
Increase in CO emissions from the combustion of methane in destruction devices (tonnes) 270 422 419 5,423
Increase in PM emissions from the combustion of methane in destruction devices (tonnes) 87 136 135 1,751

As shown above, the proposed Regulations are expected to decrease harmful VOC emissions from landfills by roughly 3 000 tonnes annually from 2030 to 2040. These reductions would be offset by small increases in other harmful air pollutants (less than 2 000 tonnes of combined annual increases in other air pollutants). Owing to the relatively small changes in overall air pollutant emissions associated with the proposed Regulations, air quality modelling to estimate the impacts on air pollutant concentrations and modelling of the associated environmental and human health impacts were not conducted. In the current context, relatively small changes should be interpreted as changes detectable by standard air quality scenario modelling, but with a low signal (changes in air pollutant concentrations slightly over the sensitivity of the scenario methodology).

Health impacts

Changes in emissions of air pollutants may influence ambient concentrations of health-relevant air pollutants for communities near landfills, including fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide and ground-level ozone. These air pollutants are associated with a broad range of adverse health effects. However, the health benefits of reductions in VOC emissions and the health impacts from exposure to increases in other air pollutants associated with the proposed Regulations are expected to be small.

Estimated cost effectiveness of the proposed Regulations

To evaluate the cost effectiveness of the proposed Regulations, the cost per tonne of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) reduced for each landfill was calculated. This metric offers a standardized approach, enabling comparison with other GHG mitigation alternatives. The estimation involves dividing the total compliance cost by the total amount of methane reductions achieved over the analysis time frame. On average, the cost per tonne of GHG reduction is projected to be approximately $5/t CO2e over the time frame of the analysis.

Cost-benefit statement

The monetized net benefit of the proposed Regulations is estimated to be $10.6 billion dollars over the time frame of the analysis.

Table 8: Summary of monetized benefits, costs and net benefits (millions of dollars) from 2025 to 2040
  • Number of years: 16 (2025 to 2040)
  • Base year for costing: 2022
  • Present value base year: 2024
  • Discount rate: 2% per year
Net benefits
(costs)		 Undiscounted
2027		 Undiscounted
2033		 Undiscounted
2040 		 Discounted total
2027–2040		 Annualized
Discounted
Monetized GHG benefits 515 1,027 1,296 11,162 822
Total costs 114 99 26 581 43
Total net benefits 401 928 1,269 10,582 779

As shown in the above Table 8, the monetized GHG benefits, are outlined as follows: undiscounted values are $515 million in 2027, $1,027 million in 2033, and $1,296 million in 2040. The total discounted value amounts to $11,162 million. On an annualized basis, the average discounted value is $822 million. The total compliance costs are detailed as follows: undiscounted values are $114 million in 2027, $99 million in 2033, and $26 million in 2040. The total discounted value amounts to $581 million. On an annualized basis, the average discounted value is $43 million. The total net benefits are outlined as follows: undiscounted values are $401 million in 2027, $928 million in 2033, and $1,269 million in 2040. The total discounted value amounts to $10,582 million. On an annualized basis, the average discounted value is $779 million.

Analytical uncertainty 

The methane emission reduction and compliance cost estimates are subject to uncertainty, primarily due to the modelling of landfill methane generation. The methane generation model is a simplified approach to estimating what is a heterogeneous, site-specific process impacted by variations in landfill design, waste disposal practices and rates, the biodegradable content of waste disposed and moisture conditions in waste disposed.

There is also uncertainty related to estimating the quantity of additional methane that would be recovered in the regulatory scenario. The estimation reflects best available information regarding current landfill gas recovery, which, for some landfills has not been reported to the Department for several years and could be out of date. However, this approach is the current best available means to estimate potential methane generation and emissions at landfills.

The cost estimates take into account expenses related to construction activities involved in setting up landfill gas recovery and flaring infrastructure to achieve the emission limits in the proposed Regulations. Construction costs can fluctuate due to changes in material prices, labour rates, and technological advancements, affecting the cost benchmarks for collection wells, blowers, and flares.

The recovery of landfill gas (which is expected to be the primary approach that would be used for compliance with the proposed Regulations) has potential to generate revenue for landfill owners and operators. These revenues include the sale of compliance credits (under the Clean Fuel Regulations), offset credits (generated under federal and provincial offset protocols and systems) and the sale of low-carbon energy or fuel. Although this revenue has the potential to significantly reduce the compliance costs of the proposed Regulations, due to challenges in assessing which landfills would take advantage of these opportunities and the resulting revenue generated, revenue was not monetized in the analysis. There are emerging technologies for low-carbon energy or fuel including on-site electricity and compressed natural gas distribution systems that do not involve pipelines (e.g. on-site vehicle fuelling stations or centralized bulk storage and distribution networks). This means that in the future a larger proportion of regulated landfills may be able to generate revenue as the price of and demand for low-carbon energy or fuel increases.

These types of uncertainty are assessed in the Sensitivity Analysis below.

Sensitivity analysis

The results of the cost-benefit analysis described above are based on key parameter estimates; however, the true values may be higher or lower than those projected. To account for this uncertainty, sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the effect of higher or lower estimates on the overall impact of the proposed Regulations. Benefits and costs may be lower or higher than estimated, so the net benefit conclusion has been tested by assuming 50% lower benefits, 50% higher compliance costs, a lower (0%) or higher (7%) discount rate, and a “combined case” comprising 25% lower benefits, 25% higher compliance costs, and a 7% discount rate, as shown below in Table 9.

Table 9: Sensitivity Analysis (Millions of Dollars) from 2025 to 2040
Variable(s)  Sensitivity Case  Benefits Costs (2025 - 2040) Net Benefits
Central case (from Table 8 ) N/A 11,162 581 10,582
Benefits valuation 50% Lower 5,581 581 5,000
Compliance costs 50% Higher 11,162 860 10,303
Discount rate 0% 13,695 673 13,021
7% 6,977 407 6,570
  • Benefits
  • Compliance Costs
  • Discount rate
  • 25% Lower
  • 25% Higher
  • 7%
 5,233 507 4,725

As shown in the above Table 9, the variables and corresponding values in the central case are as follows: Benefits amount to $11,162 million, costs stand at $581 million, and net benefits total at $10,582 million. In the sensitivity case with

In all scenarios presented, the proposed Regulations yield an estimated net benefit. The Department thus concludes that it is plausible that the proposed Regulations would result in net benefits for Canadians.

Distributional analysis

The proposed Regulations are expected to result in benefits that exceed costs for Canadian society, but the benefits and costs may not be equally distributed. The distribution of impacts is discussed below in terms of impacts by region and the potential for cost passthrough considerations. An analysis of household and gender-based analysis plus (GBA+) impacts are then considered.

Impacts by region

The emission reductions and compliance costs associated with the proposed Regulations would vary by region. Various factors, including landfill characteristics, waste composition, and meteorological conditions, contribute to this regional variability.

The cost per tonne of CO2e reduced was assessed to identify potential distributional impacts. Due to the small size of landfills, and lack of existing landfill gas recovery systems, the cost per tonne of CO2e reduced was highest in Yukon, Northwest Territories and Prince Edward Island. In general, the cost per tonne of CO2e reduced is lower where only expansions of existing landfill gas recovery systems were costed. The analysis showed slightly higher cost per tonne of CO2e reduced in Quebec, British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia compared to the remainder of the provinces — potentially a result of a higher proportion of new systems that were costed. Table 10 below provides the cost per tonne of GHG reductions by region.

Table 10: Cost per tonne of GHG reductions ($/t CO2e)
Cost effectiveness AB BC MB NB NL NS NT ON PE QC SK YT Canada
Discounted cost per tonne of GHG reductions 5 7 5 4 4 10 42 4 21 7 10 49 5

As shown in the above Table 10, the cost effectiveness across provinces and territories, measured by the Discounted Cost per Tonne of GHG Reductions ($/t CO2e), is as follows: Alberta (AB): $5, British Columbia (BC): $7, Manitoba (MB): $5, New Brunswick (NB): $4, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL): $4, Nova Scotia (NS): $10, Northwest Territories (NT): $42, Ontario (ON): $4, Prince Edward Island (PE): $21, Quebec (QC): $7, Saskatchewan (SK): $10, Yukon (YT): $49. The national average is $5.

Impacts by landfill size

Landfill gas recovery infrastructure makes up the majority of estimated compliance costs. These impacts will vary with the size of the regulated landfill and whether a new system or a system expansion would be needed. Table 11 shows the impact of the quantity of waste-in-place on average total compliance costs on three categories of open landfills and closed landfills, and distinguishing costs for new and expanded system installations. On average, larger landfills are estimated to incur higher compliance costs than smaller landfills, for both new and expanded systems. These higher costs at larger landfills are anticipated to be offset by the higher revenue potential associated with operation of the landfill and from sale of biogas or low-carbon energy or fuels.

Table 11: Quantity of waste (kilotonnes) and average total compliance costs (millions of dollars)
Description Open landfills, >2500 kilotonnes Waste-in-place Open landfills, 1000 to 2499 kilotonnes Waste-in-place Open landfills, 100 to 999 kilotonnes Waste-in-place Closed landfills
Number of regulated landfills 41 43 39 16
Range of annual waste disposed (2022) [tonnes] 26,981–1,299,999 12,284–148,586 12,855–63,465 0
Average annual waste disposed (2022) [tonnes] 299,268 50,405 25,209 0
Range of population served 35,000–2,642,825 20,000–500,000 7,500–475,500 0
Number of landfills requiring new systems 4 17 31 6
Average total compliance cost for new systems $12.5 $5.5 $4.2 $4.7
Number of landfills requiring system expansions 37 26 8 10
Average total compliance cost for system expansions $4.3 $1.2 $1.2 $2.6

Note: Some closed landfills also have compliance obligations.

Cost impacts on landfill owners and users

In 2020, approximately $1.4 billion was spent on waste management capital expenditures.footnote 13 Average annual compliance costs related to the proposed Regulations are estimated at $61 million, representing 4% of total expenditures.

Cost pass-through

Ultimately, compliance costs are assumed to be passed through to the entities that make use of waste disposal services — including households, municipalities and businesses or private sector profits. Both municipally and privately owned landfills generate revenue through tipping fees (a fee charged based on the weight of the waste disposed) and it is assumed that landfill owners could increase these tipping fees to cover some compliance costs. For municipally owned landfills, compliance costs may also be covered through increased user fees or property taxes — a cost pass-through to households and businesses located in municipalities that own regulated landfills.

The Department estimates that the total amount of waste that will be disposed, between 2025 and 2040, in landfills expected to comply with the proposed Regulations, is 237 million tonnes. The total compliance cost during this period is estimated at $569 million. Therefore, the average cost of compliance with the proposed Regulations is estimated to be $2 per tonne of future waste disposed at regulated landfills. With typical tipping fees in Canada ranging from $50 to $130 per tonne, this incremental cost represents between 1.5 and 4% of the cost of landfilling this waste.

There are a variety of revenue sources and funding programs that could cover the cost of compliance.

Sale of low-carbon fuels and energy

Landfills with sufficient methane generation to support a landfill gas utilization project may be able to generate revenue through sale of low-carbon fuels and energy including renewable natural gas and electricity. These types of projects can also generate revenue through the sale of compliance credits under the Clean Fuel Regulations.

Sale of GHG offset credits

Landfill methane recovery and destruction projects at certain landfills may be eligible to generate GHG offset credits under Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Offset Credit System (and protocol for Landfill Methane Recovery and Destruction) and similar provincial offset protocols in place in British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec. Under most of these systems and protocols, eligibility to create offset credits ends once the activity is regulated. Offset credits cannot be created for projects at landfills currently regulated in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec and would not be a source of revenue for other landfills once the proposed federal Regulations apply, except in Quebec. Under the Quebec system, offset credits can be generated for landfill gas recovery and destruction projects as long as this activity was not required under a law or regulation at the time of project registration and the landfill remains below specified annual waste disposal and landfill capacity thresholds for the duration of the project.

To extend the eligibility to generation offset credits at smaller landfills, under the proposed Regulations, landfills with annual methane generation of 664 tonnes or more but less than 1 000 tonnes would be eligible to generate and sell offset credits for landfill methane recovery and destruction until January 1, 2033.

Funding programs

Landfill gas management infrastructure projects at regulated landfills may be eligible for funding through programs such as the Canada Community-Building Fund (federal funds with program delivered by provinces and territories) and the Green Municipal Fund (GMF) (for projects generating energy from landfill gas).

Household and gender-based analysis plus

The Department conducted a gender-based analysis plus (GBA+) and concluded that no groups would be affected disproportionately by the proposed Regulations. Most large urban municipalities own landfills that would be regulated. However, there are only a portion of smaller rural municipalities that would need to comply. The GBA+ concluded that the proposed Regulations would financially impact communities located in every Canadian province and territory (except for Nunavut) that either own regulated landfills or send their waste to privately owned regulated landfills. However, the impact would not be felt equally in all regions. Due to the small size of landfills, and lack of existing landfill gas recovery systems, the cost per tonne of CO2e reduced was highest in Yukon, Northwest Territories and Prince Edward Island (see Table 10).

No other significant GBA+ impacts have been identified in association with the proposed Regulations.

Small business lens

It is estimated that the proposed Regulations would impact 146 landfills, comprising both privately and publicly owned landfills. Publicly owned municipal solid waste landfills, which are not considered enterprises, have been excluded from the small business lens analysis. Among the privately owned landfills expected to be regulated, none appear to meet the threshold to be considered as a small business.footnote 14 Therefore, the small business lens is not expected to be triggered.

The proposed Regulations were designed to exclude the smallest landfills in the country and to provide additional time for smaller landfills to comply with the performance standards and monitoring requirements. The implementation timeline to comply with the surface methane concentration limits is proposed to be January 1, 2033. This would enable smaller landfills to generate offset credits where early, voluntary operation of landfill gas recovery systems is adopted in advance of regulatory schedules.

Small business lens summary

Analysis has concluded that the proposed Regulations would not impact any small business. However, an analysis of potential impacts for a landfill that might trigger the small business lens is provided to illustrate the potential cost impacts, as summarized in Table 12 below. The small business landfill is assumed to have no existing landfill gas recovery and destruction system.

Table 12: Total costs for the small business (for illustration purposes)
Cost category Annualized Total present value
Compliance costs (one impacted small business) $368,650 $5,005,423
Administrative costs (one impacted small business) $5,323 $72,271
Total costs $373,973 $5,077,694
Cost per small business $373,973  $5,077,694 

The small business lens summary indicates that no small business is impacted over the time frame of the analysis (16 years), with the base year for costing set in 2022. The annualized compliance costs for a landfill that might trigger the small business lens are estimated to be $368,650, with a total present value of $5,005,423 over 16 years. These costs would be attributed to the installation of landfill gas collection wellfield and blower and flaring systems. Additionally, a landfill that might trigger the small business lens would incur O&M and monitoring costs. The annualized administrative costs are estimated to be $5,323, with a total present value of $72,271 over 16 years. The total annualized cost, which includes compliance and administrative costs, is estimated to be $373,973, with a total present value of $5,077,694 over 16 years.

One-for-one rule

The one-for-one rule applies since there would be an incremental increase in the administrative burden on businesses and a new regulatory title would be introduced.

The main driver of administrative costs is regulatory reporting and record-keeping. The regulatory reporting primarily involves conducting an initial applicability assessment to estimate the amount of methane generated at the landfill. Once the assessment indicates that the landfill exceeds specified methane generation thresholds, in specified future years, the Department would require regulated landfills to provide an annual report. The proposed Regulations would require that landfills maintain certain records. It is assumed that some of the required data is already accessible and kept by regulated landfills due to existing provincial requirements and requirements in landfill operating permits. In addition, regulated landfills would be expected to incur new administrative costs related to learning about the new administrative regulatory requirements. The Department estimates that, on average, landfill owners or operators would spend 80 hours annually to comply with administrative requirements, with a wage of $56 per hour.footnote 6 The total annualized administrative costs for the regulatees to comply with the administrative requirements over a 10-year time frame are estimated to be approximately $58,792 for all stakeholders, or $2,450 per business.

Regulatory cooperation and alignment

Provinces and territories

Regulations to control methane emissions from landfills are already in place in certain provinces. For example, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec have regulations requiring larger landfills to capture and control or reduce methane emissions, and others include requirements for installing landfill gas recovery and flaring systems in operating permits. Specifically:

In terms of alignment with existing provincial regulations, the proposed Regulations align with the British Columbia regulatory approach of requiring certain landfills to model methane generation and then requiring only those that exceed a methane generation threshold to take action to control methane emissions. The proposed Regulations align with the requirement in the Quebec regulations to monitor surface methane emissions periodically and comply with a surface methane concentration limit. The frequency of wellfield monitoring requirements of the proposed Regulations aligns with British Columbia Guidelines for this activity. The proposed Regulations do include more stringent thresholds that identify which landfills must control emissions and additional monitoring and thresholds to assess the performance of methane control at these landfills.

CEPA allows for flexibility via equivalency agreements with interested provinces and territories, as long as the federal regulations and provincial or territorial legally binding regimes are determined to produce equal or better environmental outcomes. Where an equivalency agreement is entered into and an Order made by the Governor in Council directs that the federal regulations do not apply to a province, then the provincial regulations will be the only regulations to apply.

United States (U.S.)

The proposed Regulations would align with the most stringent U.S. state-level regulatory thresholds for determining applicability, for assessing performance and for detecting and repairing methane leaks, currently included in California’s Landfill Methane Regulation (LMR), Oregon’s Landfill Methane Rule, Maryland’s regulatory requirements for the Control of Landfill Gas Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Landfills and Washington’s proposed rule on Landfill Methane Emissions (PDF). Methane generation thresholds in these state rules all reference the same annual methane generation threshold of 664 tonnes (equivalent to 732 U.S. tons or 3.0 million metric British thermal units per hour [MMBtu/hr]). Regulatory requirements for monitoring active landfill gas recovery systems and monitoring surface methane concentrations align with existing requirements included in the U.S. federal New Source Performance Standards and Emission Guidelines that apply to certain landfills that receive municipal solid waste and in the state regulations.

The Department will continue to engage the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and state regulators to identify opportunities to align requirements, where possible, and to follow the development of new or amended requirements. California is currently reviewing LMR requirements with a view to making amendments to strengthen its requirements. The Department will continue to work with these partners towards the development of standardized test methods for drone-based methane surface emission monitoring and for measuring whole-site methane emissions methods, which could play a significant role in the proposed Regulations and could support future amendments, if required.

International

Internationally, Canada is working in partnership with the international community to implement the Paris Agreement in order to support the goal to limit temperature rise this century to levels well below 2 oC and to pursue efforts to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 oC.

At the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Canada joined 110 countries in endorsing the Global Methane Pledge, which committed countries to take economy-wide action to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels.

The European Union (EU) is developing an approach to manage methane emissions. The European Council published its methane strategy on October 14, 2020, covering the Energy, Agriculture and Waste sectors. The strategy noted plans to continue to implement the Landfill Directive that was adopted in 1999, and requires landfill operators to control landfill gas by either using it to generate energy or through flaring. A review of the Landfill Directive planned for 2024 will consider whether new techniques to reduce landfill methane emissions and the possibility for enhanced monitoring, reporting and verification, should be included in the existing guidance document on the implementation of the directive. Additional EU waste legislation introduced in 2018 set out an obligation to divert biodegradable waste from landfills by 2024 and set a new target of a maximum 10% landfilling of all waste by 2035. The focus on organic waste diversion in some European countries (in line with these targets) has drastically reduced the amount of landfill methane generation that would have required mitigation through implementation of methane control systems at landfills.

Implementation, compliance and enforcement, and service standards

Implementation

The proposed Regulations would come into force on the day they are registered. Certain requirements in the proposed Regulations apply upon the coming into force of the regulations (assessment of annual methane generation), whereas other requirements do not apply until January 1, 2027, January 1, 2029, or January 1, 2033, depending on whether there are existing landfill gas recovery systems in place at a landfill and on the quantity of annual methane generation that is assessed. The regulations would be fully implemented by 2033.

Compliance and enforcement

The proposed Regulations would be made under CEPA. Enforcement officers would, when verifying compliance with the Regulations, apply the Compliance and Enforcement Policy for CEPA. The Policy sets out the range of possible enforcement responses to alleged violations. The enforcement officer would select the appropriate enforcement action based on the Policy.

The Department would undertake compliance promotion activities, including the development of guidance material explaining the regulatory requirements and focused on monitoring methods required to be utilized to comply with the regulations. These materials would be posted on the Department’s website and promoted via webinars. The compliance promotion activities would be adjusted according to compliance analyses or if unforeseen compliance challenges arise.

Contacts

Astrid Télasco
Director
Waste Reduction and Management Division
Environment and Climate Change Canada
351 Saint-Joseph Boulevard
Gatineau, Quebec
K1A 0H3
Email: ges-dechets-ghg-waste@ec.gc.ca

Matt Watkinson
Executive Director
Regulatory Analysis and Valuation Division
Economic Analysis Directorate
Strategic Policy Branch
Department of the Environment
200 Sacré-Cœur Boulevard, 10th Floor
Gatineau, Quebec
K1A 0H3
Email: ravd.darv@ec.gc.ca

PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT

Notice is given, under subsection 332(1)footnote a of the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 footnote b, that the Governor in Council proposes to make the annexed Regulations Respecting the Reduction in the Release of Methane (Waste Sector) under subsection 93(1)footnote c and section 286.1footnote d of that Act.

Any person may, within 60 days after the date of publication of this notice, file with the Minister of the Environment comments with respect to the proposed Regulations or a notice of objection requesting that a board of review be established under section 333footnote e of that Act and stating the reasons for the objection. Persons filing comments are strongly encouraged to use the online commenting feature that is available on the Canada Gazette website. Persons filing comments by any other means, and persons filing a notice of objection, should cite the Canada Gazette, Part I, and the date of publication of this notice, and send the comments or notice of objection to Astrid Télasco, Director, Waste Reduction and Management Division, Department of the Environment, 351 Boulevard Saint-Joseph, Gatineau, Quebec K1A 0H3 (email: ges-dechets-ghg-waste@ec.gc.ca).

A person who provides information to the Minister may submit with the information a request for confidentiality under section 313footnote f of that Act.

Ottawa, June 25, 2024

Wendy Nixon
Assistant Clerk of the Privy Council

Regulations Respecting the Reduction in the Release of Methane (Waste Sector)

Definitions and Interpretation

Definitions

1 (1) The following definitions apply in these Regulations.

active landfill gas recovery system
means any system that employs landfill gas recovery wells and connected piping, blowers, fans, pumps or compressors to create a pressure gradient to actively extract landfill gas. (système de récupération active des gaz d’enfouissement)
authorized official
means
  • (a) in respect of an owner or operator who is an individual, that individual or another individual who is authorized to act on their behalf;
  • (b) in respect of an owner or operator that is a corporation, an officer of the corporation who is authorized to act on its behalf; and
  • (c) in respect of an owner or operator that is an entity other than a corporation, an individual who is authorized to act on its behalf. (agent autorisé)
biocover
means a landfill cover that is designed to support microbial oxidation of methane via the aerobic pathway. (biocouverture)
closed,
in relation to a landfill, means that the landfill is no longer accepting solid waste for disposal. (fermé)
EPA Method 21
means the method of the Environmental Protection Agency of the United States entitled Method 21 – Determination of Volatile Organic Compound Leaks, set out in Appendix A-7 to Part 60 of Title 40, chapter I of the Code of Federal Regulations of the United States. (méthode 21 de l’EPA)
equipment component
means a component of a landfill gas management system that has the potential to leak methane. (composant d’équipement)
exceedance
means, in relation to
  • (a) a surface methane concentration, a concentration 500 ppmv or more; and
  • (b) a zone-average surface methane concentration, a concentration of 25 ppmv or more. (dépassement)
final cover
means a landfill cover that is placed on the portions of a landfill that have reached maximum design grade or where waste disposal will no longer take place. (couverture finale)
landfill gas
means a mixture of gases, including methane, generated by the decomposition of organic waste in a landfill. (gaz d’enfouissement)
landfill gas management system
means a system used in a landfill to recover and combust or process landfill gas. (système de gestion des gaz d’enfouissement)
methane leak
means a leak from an equipment component with a methane concentration of 500 ppmv or more. (fuite de méthane)
monitoring event
means, as the case may be,
  • (a) each of the monitoring events in relation to landfill gas recovery wells required under subsection 10(1);
  • (b) each of the monitoring events in relation to equipment components required under subsection 13(1); or
  • (c) each of the monitoring events in relation to surface methane concentrations and zone-average surface methane concentrations required under subsection 17(1) or (2). (activité de surveillance)
municipal solid waste
means waste that originates from residential, commercial, institutional, industrial, construction, renovation, demolition or land clearing sources. (déchets solides municipaux)
operator
means a person that has the charge, management or control of a landfill or a landfill gas management system. (exploitant)
ppmv
means parts per million by volume. (ppmv)
Technical Guidance Document
means the Technical Guidance Document on Estimating, Measuring and Monitoring Landfill Methane published by the Department of the Environment. (document d’orientation technique)
vent
means to emit landfill gas to the atmosphere via vent pipes or leachate control system components. (évacuation)
zone-average surface methane concentration
means the average of all methane concentrations recorded within a specified zone of 4500 m2. (concentration moyenne de méthane en surface par zone)

Interpretation

(2) For the purposes of these Regulations, a reference to “volatile organic compounds” or “VOC” in EPA Method 21 is to be read as a reference to “methane”.

Documents incorporated by reference

(3) Any document that is incorporated by reference into these Regulations is incorporated as amended from time to time.

Purpose

Protection of environment

2 For the purpose of protecting the environment and of reducing the immediate or long-term harmful effects of the emission of methane on the environment or its biological diversity, these Regulations

Application

Application

3 These Regulations apply to

Methane Generation Assessment

Annual assessment

4 (1) By June 1 of a calendar year, the owner or operator of a landfill shall

Cessation of application

(2) Subsection (1) ceases to apply in respect of a landfill if the owner or operator complies with paragraph (1)(b) and

Definition of open

(3) In this section, open, in relation to a landfill, means that the landfill accepts solid waste for disposal.

Records

5 The owner or operator of a landfill shall make a record of

Conditional Requirements

Non-application

6 (1) Sections 7 to 23 do not apply in respect of a landfill if the quantity of methane calculated under paragraph 4(1)(a) in respect of a calendar year for the landfill is less than 1000 tonnes, the landfill is closed at the end of that calendar year and the owner or operator complies with paragraph 4(1)(b) for that calendar year.

Application — 1000 tonnes or more

(2) Sections 7 to 23 apply in respect of a landfill for which the quantity of methane calculated under paragraph 4(1)(a) in respect of the calendar year is 1000 tonnes or more

Application — 664 to 1000 tonnes

(3) Sections 7 to 23 apply in respect of a landfill for which the quantity of methane calculated under paragraph 4(1)(a) in respect of the calendar year is 664 tonnes or more but less than 1000 tonnes, on January 1, 2033 or on January 1 of the 4th year after the year for which that quantity is calculated, whichever is later.

Methane Control

Venting prohibited

7 (1) Subject to subsection (2), an owner or operator of a landfill shall not vent landfill gas.

Exceptions

(2) Landfill gas may be vented

Methane destruction

8 (1) An owner or operator of a landfill shall, to destroy methane, convey landfill gas recovered by an active landfill gas recovery system to one or more of the following devices or systems:

Treatment system — emissions

(2) If recovered landfill gas is conveyed to a treatment system under paragraph (1)(d), the owner or operator of the treatment system shall convey to an enclosed or open flare

Submission to Minister

(3) If recovered landfill gas is conveyed to a device or system referred to in paragraph (1)(e), the owner or operator of the landfill shall submit the following information to the Minister by June 1 of the year following the calendar year in which the device or system becomes operational:

Monitoring — methane destruction

(4) An owner or operator of a landfill shall, at least every 15 minutes, measure the methane concentration in recovered landfill gas and the volumetric flowrate, in cubic metres at standard conditions (a temperature of 15°C and a pressure of 101.325 kPa), of that recovered landfill gas that is conveyed to each of the devices or systems referred to subsection (1).

Records

9 An owner or operator of a landfill shall make a record of

Monitoring of Landfill Gas Recovery Wells

Monitoring — recovery wells

10 (1) Subject to subsection (3), an owner or operator of a landfill shall, on a monthly basis, monitor all landfill gas recovery wells in place to determine whether the pressure in the wells is negative.

Method

(2) The pressure in the wells is to be measured using a hand-held manometer or magnahelic gauge that is calibrated and operated in accordance with the manufacture’s specifications.

Exceptions

(3) An owner or operator need not monitor a landfill gas recovery well

Positive pressure

11 (1) If positive pressure is measured in a landfill gas recovery well, the owner or operator of the landfill shall

Non-application

(2) Subsection (1) does not apply if there is a fire at the landfill or a temperature of 55 °C or more is measured in the well.

Records

12 An owner or operator of a landfill shall make

Methane Leaks

Monitoring

13 (1) An owner or operator of an equipment component that is part of a landfill gas management system in operation at a landfill shall, to identify methane leaks in that component,

Notice to Minister — alternative method

(2) An owner or operator that uses a method referred to in paragraph (1)(b) shall, at least 60 days before doing so, notify the Minister and include with the notice

Detection of methane leak

14 (1) If a methane leak is detected in an equipment component, the owner or operator of the equipment component shall, within 30 days after the day on which the leak is detected,

Follow-up

(2) If the methane leak is not eliminated, the owner or operator shall submit to the Minister, within 30 days after the day on which the measurement referred to in paragraph (1)(b) is taken,

Time limit

(3) The owner or operator shall eliminate the methane leak within 90 days after the day on which it is first detected if it can be eliminated while the equipment component is still operating, or, in any other case, during the next shutdown of the landfill gas management system.

Elimination of methane leak

(4) A methane leak is considered to be eliminated if the methane concentration at the location of the leak is less than 500 ppmv when using an instrument referred to in paragraph 19(1)(a) that is operated in accordance with Section 8.3.1 of EPA Method 21 to the extent that it is consistent with the manufacturer’s recommendations for the instrument.

Records

15 The owner or operator of the equipment component shall make a record of, for each monitoring event,

Surface Methane Concentration Limits

Obligation

16 (1) An owner or operator of a landfill shall ensure that there is no exceedance in relation to the surface methane concentration and the zone-average surface methane concentration in portions of the landfill that are under final cover or where waste disposal has not taken place in the previous 12 months.

Exception

(2) Subsection (1) does not apply in any portion of the landfill where the landfill cover is under construction or any active landfill gas recovery systems are not operating due to normal servicing or repairs.

Monitoring — exceedances

17 (1) The owner or operator of a landfill shall, for the purpose of detecting an exceedance, monitor the landfill three times per calendar year separated by an interval of at least 90 days by measuring the surface methane concentrations in accordance with section 19 and calculating the zone-average surface methane concentrations in accordance with section 20.

Exception

(2) If an exceedance is not detected during a calendar year in a portion of a landfill under final cover, the owner or operator need only monitor the landfill once in the following year in that portion of the landfill.

Follow-up

18 (1) If an exceedance is detected, the owner or operator of the landfill shall,

Submission to Minister

(2) If the exceedance has not been eliminated, the owner or operator shall submit to the Minister, within 120 days after the day on which the exceedance is first detected

Time limit

(3) The owner or operator shall eliminate the exceedance within six months after the day on which it is first detected.

Elimination of exceedance

(4) An exceedance is considered to be eliminated, using an instrument referred to in paragraph 19(1)(a) in accordance with subsections 19(2) and (5),

Instruments

19 (1) Surface methane concentration measurements are to be taken using

Method — paragraph (1)(a) instrument

(2) When using an instrument referred to in paragraph (1)(a), surface methane concentrations are to be measured with the probe inlet placed no more than 10 cm above the landfill surface.

Method — paragraph (1)(b) instrument

(3) When using an instrument referred to in paragraph (1)(b), surface methane concentrations are to be measured in accordance with Section 8.3 of EPA OTM 51.

Measurement locations

(4) Measurements are to be taken

Restrictions

(5) Measurements are not to be taken within 72 hours after precipitation.

Definition of EPA OTM 51

(6) In this section, EPA OTM 51 means the method of the Environmental Protection Agency of the United States entitled Other Test Method 51 (OTM-51) – UAS Application of Method 21 for Surface Emission Monitoring of Landfills.

Calculation — ground-based measurements

20 (1) If surface methane concentrations are measured in a zone using an instrument referred to in paragraph 19(1)(a), the calculation of the zone-average surface methane concentration for the zone is to be based on those measurements and include only those measurements referred to in 19(4)(b).

Calculation — drone-based measurements

(2) If surface methane concentrations are measured in a zone using an instrument referred to in paragraph 19(1)(b) and the average of the concentrations measured in the zone are 25 ppmv or more, the zone must be re-measured using an instrument referred to in paragraph 19(1)(a) in accordance with subsection 19(2), paragraph 19(4)(b) and subsection 19(5) and the calculation of the zone average surface methane concentration for the zone is to be based on the new measurements.

Calculation not required

(3) If surface methane concentrations are measured in a zone using an instrument referred to in paragraph 19(1)(b) and the average of the concentrations measured in the zone is less than 25 ppmv, the calculation of the zone average surface methane concentration for the zone is not required.

Records

21 The owner or operator of a landfill shall, for each monitoring event, make a record of

Annual Report

Annual report

22 The owner or operator of a landfill shall, by June 1 of each calendar year, submit to the Minister a report for the previous calendar year that includes

Cessation of Application

Sections 7 to 15

23 (1) Subject to subsection (4), sections 7 to 15 cease to apply in respect of a closed landfill that is under final cover over the surface of the entire landfill if

Sections 16 to 22

(2) Subject to subsection (4), sections 16 to 22 cease to apply in respect of a closed landfill that is under final cover over the surface of the entire landfill if

Non-application — subsection 17(2)

(3) For the purpose of paragraph (2)(b), an owner or operator may not take advantage of the exception referred to in subsection 17(2).

Submission to Minister

(4) The owner or operator must submit the following information and documents to the Minister:

General

Record keeping

24 Every owner or operator of a landfill shall, for any record that is required to be made under these Regulations,

Electronic provision

25 (1) Information or a report, notice or record that is required to be provided to the Minister under these Regulations is to be provided electronically in the form specified by the Minister and must bear the signature or electronic signature of the owner or operator that is required to provide it or of the owner’s or operator’s authorized official.

Exception

(2) If the Minister has not specified an electronic form or format or if it is impractical to provide the report, notice, record or information electronically because of circumstances beyond the control of the owner or operator, the report, notice, record or information is to be provided on paper, signed by the owner, operator or the owner’s or operator’s authorized official, in the form and format specified by the Minister. If no form and format have been so specified, it may be provided in any form and format.

Transitional Provision

Application — subsection 4(1)

26 In the calendar year in which subsection 4(1) comes into force, the owner or operator of a landfill shall comply with that subsection in relation to the previous calendar year within 90 days after the day on which these Regulations come into force.

Consequential Amendment to the Regulations Designating Regulatory Provisions for Purposes of Enforcement (Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999)

27 The schedule to the Regulations Designating Regulatory Provisions for Purposes of Enforcement (Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999) footnote 15 is amended by adding the following in numerical order:
Item

Column 1

Regulations

Column 2

Provisions
39 Regulations Respecting the Reduction in the Release of Methane (Waste Sector)
  • (a) subsection 7(1)
  • (b) subsections 8(1) and (2)
  • (c) subsections 14(1) and (3)
  • (d) subsection 16(1)
  • (e) subsections 18(1) and (3)

Coming into Force

Registration

28 These Regulations come into force on the day on which they are registered.

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